Iron Ore Won't Rebound Any Time Soon

Why Iron Ore Won't Rebound Any Time Soon

Economists may teach that low prices and declining demand encourage producers to decrease supply, but the iron ore industry appears to have skipped class that day.

"The combination of a further increase in global iron ore supply this year and only subdued demand growth suggests iron ore prices will continue to drift lower," said Caroline Bain, an analyst at Capital Economics, in a note Monday. She forecasts iron ore prices at $60 a tonne by year-end, with risks to the downside. Iron ore touched a more than five-year low Monday of around $63.30 a tonne, although some forward contracts are already pricing it under $60.

Output has picked up over the past few years, encouraged by expectations China demand would continue to post strong growth and by low production costs in Australia and Brazil, she said. She noted Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton put their average production cost in Pilbara, where most of Australia's iron-ore production is located, at around $25 a tonne, compared with 2010-13 average market prices at $145 a tonne. Even at current prices, these producers are still profitable, Bain noted. Australia is the world's second-largest iron-ore producer after China.

Despite 2014's around 50 percent decline in iron ore prices, the big four producers -- Vale (Sao Paulo Stock Exchange: VALE'A-BR), Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton and Fortescue (ASX:FMG-AU) - continue to expand production and other companies are also bringing projects on line this year, she said, forecasting Australian production will rise 6 percent this year, although that's down from 2014's 20 percent rise.

Don't count on China

At the same time, despite China producers' higher costs and lower ore grades, production there isn't likely to see much slowdown, especially as many steel plants have "vertically integrated" operations, owning mines nearby, Bain said. Closures on the mainland are likely to focus on less efficient operations, leading to a leaner and meaner industry there, she said.

"The multinational producers will be only partially successful in their bid to oust higher-cost producers globally and oversupply will continue to weigh on prices," she said. At the same time, China's iron ore usage will stagnate at best, hit by a combination of high inventories and lower demand to use the metal as part of financing deals, she said.

Goldman Sachs also expects iron ore producers won't be able to count on China for growth, noting it's become a mature market.

"The decade-long love affair between China and iron ore is cooling. Chinese steel consumption has increased to unsustainable levels and is bound to decline," it said in a note Friday. "Significant overinvestment to date will ensure that the market is well supplied."

It expects a "long war of attrition" will be needed to balance the market, cutting its long-term price forecast by 25 percent to $60 a tonne.

The Oil Effect

Falling oil prices are also set to weigh on iron ore prices, as they result in "substantial cost reductions", and commodity prices are likely to fall to meet these new lower levels, Citigroup said in a note Monday.

It's also concerned about oil-fueled deflationary pressures affecting commodity demand. 

"Falling prices increase the real cost of debt repayments and could see increased defaults. This not only affects direct commodity demand, but also drives lower inventories and threatens commodity financing trade," it said, noting that falling commodity prices also leave companies with little incentive to build up inventories.

In a note earlier this month, the bank cut its 2015 iron ore price forecast to $58 a tonne from $65

Interest in Oil (as indicated through search volume) is Abnormally High at the Moment Due to Recent Price Decline

Interest in Oil (as indicated through search volume) is Abnormally High at the Moment Due to Recent Price Decline.

Looking at the google trends chart above, we can see Interest in Oil (as indicated through search volume) is abnormally high at the moment.



 This data tells us more people are searching for oil using google, likely correlation to investment therefore we can assume that people are looking to invest in oil and are researching or looking to purchase shares and futures commodities contracts online.



 Last time oil price was this low four years ago, price quickly rebounded and went in access of $150 US per barrel.

Gold looks to feature more prominently also the last few months, the Swiss Gold Referendum, Swiss Depeg (de-ceiling) and repatriation of gold by European central banks lately have all been popular news story's on-line.



By Joseph Gale

Miners to Reveal Impact of Iron Ore Price Slump

Miners to reveal impact of iron ore price slump

It is well and truly a buyer’s market in iron ore and this week we should find out the extent of the damage for some of the smaller players.

With iron ore prices now below $US70 a tonne after falling by half and still threatening to go lower, there are serious doubts that the full complement of miners will survive the downturn.

While the big, low-cost players Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton are still ramping up production, the smaller operators are struggling, with Atlas Iron admitting it was losing money in the December quarter until oil prices dipped and returned it to slim profitability.

Chinese Government-backed Citic has announced it will be writing down the value of its Sino Iron project in Western Australia by up to $2.2 billion and further writedowns of up to $2.3 billion have already been flagged by Atlas, Mount Gibson Iron, Gindalbie Metals and Grange Resources.

On Thursday it is the turn of number three player Fortescue Metals to outline its December quarter production figures and perhaps give some guidance as to its profitability at current prices.

Fortescue chief executive Nev Power has already been critical of WA government plans to offer a 50 per cent iron ore royalty rebate to smaller players while prices are below $US90 a tonne, a move designed to keep them going in a really tough market.

BC Iron’s second quarter production is also out on Friday.

Other struggling commodities may also produce some surprises with copper/gold miners OZ Minerals, PanAust and Sandfire Resources all reporting quarterly production on Wednesday, along with oil and gas companies Beach Energy and Oil Search.

While copper and oil have both been dropping, at least gold has been heading in the other direction, which may become apparent with struggling gold giant Newcrest’s quarterly production on Friday.

The focus will also be on continuing reaction to the European Central Bank’s more than €1 trillion stimulus package, and also inflation figures due on Wednesday.

BHP Ramps Up Iron Ore, Petroleum Production Despite Price Slumps

BHP Ramps Up Iron Ore, Petroleum Production Despite Price Slumps

BHP Billiton says it has raised group production by 9 per cent in the December half year, despite slumping prices for its key commodities.

For the 2014 December quarter BHP Billiton lifted iron ore output by 16 per cent compared with the same period a year earlier to 56.4 million tonnes.

That compares with a 12 per cent rise in Rio Tinto's output over the same period, announced yesterday, although Rio remains the bigger producer.

Both companies have lifted output over the past year despite a dramatic slump in benchmark iron ore spot prices in China from around $US135 a tonne in early 2014 to less than $US70 a tonne at the end of last year.

The benchmark Tianjin spot price was at $US67.40 yesterday.

BHP Billiton says cost cuts, some of which are related to the scale associated with extra capacity, are offsetting some of the price declines.

"We are reducing costs and improving both operating and capital productivity across the group faster than originally planned," said the company's chief executive Andrew Mackenzie.

"These improvements will help mitigate some of the impact of lower commodity prices and we remain alert to opportunities to further increase free cash flow."

While iron ore prices have fallen fast, crude oil prices have fallen faster still.

Despite this, BHP Billiton's December quarter petroleum production was 10 per cent higher than the same period a year earlier, although it was 6 per cent down on the September quarter of 2014.

Mr Mackenzie said that BHP Billiton is already cutting back its planned US petroleum investments in response to oil prices which have more than halved from their 2014 peaks.

"We have moved quickly in response to lower prices and will reduce the number of rigs we operate in our onshore US business by approximately 40 per cent by the end of this financial year," he noted in the report.

"Our ongoing shale investment program will remain focused on our liquids-rich Black Hawk acreage. However, we will keep this activity under review and make further changes if we believe defer ring development will create more value than near-term production."

Elsewhere in its portfolio of mines, BHP revealed that metallurgical coal production was up 17 per cent compared to the December quarter a year before.

Energy coal used in power stations saw a 5 per cent rise in output.

Copper production fell 4 per cent in the December quarter compared with a year earlier, alumina was 3 per cent higher, aluminium 15 per cent down and nickel 10 per cent lower.

Despite weak prospects for any price recovery in the short term, BHP Billiton said it is on track to increase petroleum and copper output by 5 per cent this financial year, iron ore by 11 per cent and steel making metallurgical coal by 4 per cent.

Commodities Australia: Iron Ore Dips Back Below $US70 a Tonne

THE price of iron ore has again dipped below $US70 a tonne as investors continue to fret about Chinese demand.

At the end of the latest offshore session, benchmark iron ore for immediate delivery to the port of Tianjin in China was trading at $US69.80 a tonne, down 1.1 per cent from its previous close of $US70.60 a tonne, but still 6 per cent above the five-and-a-half-year low of $US65.70 reached just prior to Christmas.

The fall below $US70 a tonne casts doubt over the latest rebound in the commodity’s price after a horror 2014 where several minor recoveries quickly fell flat.

Iron ore lost about 50 per cent over the course of last year, but a near 10 per cent lift off recent lows to levels around $US72 a tonne had raised optimism for a better 2015.

The latest losses come as investors continue to worry about the Chinese economy, with concerns that demand growth will continue to stall over the coming 12 months as Beijing looks to restructure the world’s second largest economy.

China is the world’s largest consumer of iron ore and any further signs of softening demand will cause pain for the commodity as major suppliers such as Vale, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton continue to ramp up production.

The latest decline comes as former Morgan Stanley strategist and well-known bear Gerard Minack told Fairfax Media the price of iron ore was poised to halve in US dollar terms.

“In the boom all the other commodities went up six- or sevenfold, while iron ore went up 15 times.

“So, sure, it’s halved already, but it has further to go.”

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